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Thursday, October 9, 2008

Equity disaster creating long term opportunity in the Indian Rupee trade

As the Equity Markets around the world crash, an unprecedented opportunity is occurring in the Indian Rupee vs the US Dollar, the Euro and Every other major currency in the world. The Indian economy will not be impacted the way the China's will. The Chinese Yuan will be hurt, hurt badly by the coming world wide economic depression. The Indian Rupee has every opportunity to become a major player. The Rupee trade is about to become the biggest opportunity in decades, watch closely over the next few years as India and the Rupiah makes it's move higher.

Rupee / US Dollar / Forex Currency News, Gold prices India, and The Sensex index on the Bombay Stock Exchange (BSE). Euro / Rupee and Yen / Rupee. Silver Quotes in India

These are likely the lowest levels we will see the Rupee over the coming decade. Take advantage of this opportunity. The Sensex index will likely follow the world equity markets, but the Rupee will recover....quickly

The Indian rupee plummeted against the US dollar to its lowest level since June 2002 during Wednesday's early deals. At about 4:20 am ET, the rupee was trading at 49.00 against the buck, compared to 47.3050 hit late Tuesday in New York. On the downside, the Indian currency may likely find support near the 49.189 level.

The rupee is under pressure as the global market crunch dented investor sentiment. The stock markets across the Asia pacific are trading sharply lower today. The Japanese and the Australian markets tumbled more than 9% and 5%, respectively. The rupee that has gained around 12% against the dollar last year lost around 20% so far this year.

Foreign fund outflows from local stocks have been a key factor behind the rupee's 20% percent decline this year. Rupee has depreciated around 13% since the beginning of this month.

Bombay Stock Exchange's Sensex was down 5.75 per cent or 672.67 points at 11,022.57 after touching a low of 10,740.76. National Stock Exchange's Nifty shed 5.29 per cent or 190.85 points to 3415.75.

Wednesday, the Finance minister said that the nation is ready to pump more cash into financial markets after the stocks slumped to a two-year low and rupee is trading at its weakest level in six years." If need be, we will take further measures to infuse liquidity in the market," finance minister told.

A weaker currency will make the exports cheaper and thus protect the economy from rising commodity prices. It might bring cheer to export-oriented sectors such as IT and textiles, but it has pushed up the foreign exchange liabilities of Indian companies. When the rupee depreciates, the value of foreign currency liability denominated in rupee terms increases and vice versa. The falling rupee will severely affect the small companies, whereas the big ones will be impacted only moderately.

Monday, the Reserve Bank of India, announced a surprise cut in the Cash Reserve Ratio, from 9% of net demand and time liabilities, to 8.5%. The cut will take effect from the fortnight beginning October 11. This would inject INR 20,000 crore, the equivalent to $4.2 billion, into the system, the RBI said.

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