Indian Rupee @ Rupee.us new blog location.

The Indian Rupee updates for August 2008.

Dollar's rise vs sterling, other currencies weigh on rupee

* Stock market watched for direction (Updates to early trade)

MUMBAI, Aug 25 (Reuters) - The Indian rupee eased on Monday as the dollar climbed against some currencies overseas, triggering demand from banks from the U.S. unit.

At 9:57 a.m. (0427 GMT), the partially convertible rupee was at 43.58/59 per dollar, about 0.4 percent weaker than Friday's close of 43.425/435. It hit a 17-month low of 43.87 last week.

"The dollar's strength is pushing the dollar/rupee up but there is always fears of central bank intervention in the market," said a senior dealer at a foreign bank.

The U.S. dollar rose broadly on Monday, hitting a two-year high against sterling, as tumbling oil and gold prices left investors scurrying to buy back the currency and sparked a rebound in Asian stocks. See [ID:nSP76825].

One-month offshore non-deliverable forward contracts PYNDF were quoting at 43.63/73, weaker than the onshore rate.

Oil CLc1, India's biggest import, extended losses and was trading just above $114 a barrel after falling 5.4 percent on Friday.

Rupee / US Dollar / Forex Currency News, Gold prices India, and The Sensex index on the Bombay Stock Exchange (BSE). Euro / Rupee and Yen / Rupee. Silver Quotes

Technical Comments :

Euro: Euro was unable to sustain at 1.49 levels and was sent 145 pips lower in Friday’s session. Early this morning the currency marked a low of 1.4696. The daily chart is turning mid-way to indicate selling pressure while the hourly & 4-hourly shows slight upside. Immediate resistance comes in at 1.4857 (55 4-hourly EMA) where shorts could be considered. On the downside 1.45 constitutes an important support and going long there could be estimated. (Eur/Usd: 1.4724).

Pound: Cable’s short term rally ended on Friday as it sharply deteriorated to touch 1.8504 low against the greenback after disappointing GDP of the UK. Cable further fell to touch 1.8404 in the early morning session today. Further downside may be witnessed with daily charts showing selling pressure. Reversal pattern of bearish divergence is seen in the daily chart and if cable closes below 1.85 levels today, it can send Sterling to 1.8030 levels. UK Market is closed on account of Spring Bank Holiday. (Gbp/Usd: 1.8427).

Yen: The USD/JPY pair recouped all its losses as it surged to touch 110.13 levels on Friday. Although the daily stochastic shows slight buying pressure, the hourly and 4-hourly charts indicates selling pressure. Downside could be curbed around 109 levels (21 Daily EMA, 55 Weekly EMA) where intraday opportunities to enter long can be considered. (Usd/Jpy: 110.04).

Rupee: After hitting the 17-month low of 43.87 last week, Rupee marginally appreciated on account of dollar inflows through Foreign Investments. This relief could be temporary until and unless RBI intervenes to stall the sharp decline of rupee. In the forward premia market, the 6-month closed at 3.77 per cent (3.89 per cent) and the 12-month ended at 3.05 per cent (3.11 per cent).

(Usd/Inr: 43.52). Swiss Franc: Usd/Chf pair strengthened almost 145 pips from the day’s low of 1.0853 on Friday. The Daily chart is neutrally poised while the other stochastic is overbought and seeks correction. Currently the pair is taking resistance at 1.1045 levels (50% Retracement of the fall in weekly charts) and a pullback upto the support at 1.0890 (55 Weekly & 4-hourly EMA) can be seen. However, a decisive break of 1.1045 could take the pair to 1.13 levels (100 Weekly EMA). (Usd/Chf-1.1015).

Australian Dollar: Aussie remained weak and shed 167 pips to close at 0.8663 on Friday. The 4-Hourly & Weekly charts are oversold, however the daily continues to show a downside. If 0.86 (minor support) is held it can push Aud to the immediate resistance at 0.8684 and beyond to the cluster resistance of 0.8710 levels (50% retracement of recent fall & 21 4-Hourly EMA).(Aud/Usd-0.8636).

Gold: Gold touched a high of 837.60 before shedding almost $17 and closing at $822.70 in Friday’s session. Gold is facing strong resistance at $853 levels (38.2% Retracement & 21 Daily EMA) with daily stochastic correcting in the overbought region. Contrarily the 4-hourly chart is heading towards oversold region and $800 levels (minor support) could be maintained. (Gold: $821.10).

Dollar index: Dollar index showed a good come-back as it is currently trading 81 points higher than Friday at 77.15 supported by 80.74% stochastic clearly indicating an upside.

The late rebound in the US dollar and sharp pull back in volatile crude helped revive the ailing carry trade this past week. However, considering the deteriorating…
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