Rupee.US ping my rupee, us dollar and gold opinions
(Chart courtesy of FX Solutions' FX AccuCharts. Price on 1st pane, Slow Stochastics on 2nd pane; uptrend lines in green; downtrend lines in red; horizontal support/resistance lines in yellow; 200-period simple moving average in light blue.) 2/14/2008 – AUD/JPY – After a significant run-up in the last 3 to 4 weeks resulting from a bounce off the long-term uptrend line, price on the AUD/JPY daily chart, as shown, is approaching a confluence of several different resistance factors. This strong |
| Posted: 14 Feb 2008 10:11 AM CST EURUSD Remains in a steady recovery following decline from 1.4953 that bottomed at 1.4441. Bulls reached 1.4615 high on 12 Feb, ahead of pullback to 1.4532, where a higher low was left ahead of fresh thrust. Market cleared 1.4615 today, extending to 1.4633, 38.2% of 1.4953/1.4441 decline, before the latest dip occurred. Scope is seen of leaving a higher low above 1.4560, for fresh attempt at 1.4635, with clearance there to expose 1.4651/70 next. Res: 1.4615, 1.4635, 1.4651, 1.4670 Sup: 1.4576, |
| Posted: 14 Feb 2008 09:52 AM CST |
| Posted: 14 Feb 2008 09:18 AM CST The bulls have heart. Oil prices drove higher as a bearish EIA report failed to live up to the whisper number expectation. Yes it was about the EIA numbers but it was also about the better than expected Retail Sales numbers sent the bulls a soaring. Love was in the air and the bulls were feeling it and Cupid shot an arrow right through the bull's hearts. Gasoline supplies hit the highest level since 1999 which was the year that oil prices were near $10 a barrel. That's a lot of gas. The Bulls |
The Rupee strengthened against the dollar Posted: 14 Feb 2008 09:12 AM CST • The Rupee strengthened against the dollar as the sharp recovery in the domestic stock market helped to improve investor sentiment and encouraged capital inflows. The USD/INR pair ended at 39.61 from 39.76 yesterday. • The 6-month and 1-year forward premium was at 1.06% and 1.25% as compared to 0.40% and 0.91% yesterday. • The Dollar strengthened against the Yen as a rebound in global stocks along with better than expected U.S retail sales data helped to soother worries about the health of |
The Rupee strengthened against the dollar Posted: 14 Feb 2008 09:12 AM CST • The Rupee strengthened against the dollar as the sharp recovery in the domestic stock market helped to improve investor sentiment and encouraged capital inflows. The USD/INR pair ended at 39.61 from 39.76 yesterday. • The 6-month and 1-year forward premium was at 1.06% and 1.25% as compared to 0.40% and 0.91% yesterday. • The Dollar strengthened against the Yen as a rebound in global stocks along with better than expected U.S retail sales data helped to soother worries about the health of |
The BSE Bankex rose 4.64% to close at 10614.09 Posted: 14 Feb 2008 09:08 AM CST • Indian stock markets surged today driven by heavy short covering in the derivatives segment coupled with positive cues from overseas markets. The Sensex rose 4.8% to close at 17766.63, while the Nifty index gained 5.5% to close at 5202.00. Oil retailers rose sharply today the Cabinet finally approved raising petrol and diesel prices by Rs. 2 per litre and Re. 1 rupee per litre respectively. Bharat Petroleum Corp jumped 11% while Hindustan Petroleum Corp climbed 15%. • The BSE Bankex rose |
Indian call rate ended at 6.3% today Posted: 14 Feb 2008 09:04 AM CST • India's 10 year bond ended marginally higher recouping the losses of the day on hopes that RBI will not carry out more auctions under the MSS next week after rejecting some bids in the MSS auction today. The yield on the 7.99% note maturing in April 2017 was at 7.45%. • Indian call rate ended at 6.3% today. RBI absorbed INR 81.3 bn from the banking system. • U.S 10-year Treasuries were little changed before Federal Reserve Chairman Bernanke's testimony to the Senate Banking Committee in |
Crude oil rose on the back of strong economic data from US and Japan Posted: 14 Feb 2008 09:01 AM CST • Crude oil rose on the back of strong economic data from US and Japan. The US reported good retail sales numbers while Japan reported a more than expected GDP estimates. Crude oil for March delivery was at USD 93.99 a barrel. (17.30 IST) • Gold rose today after South Africa's national utility said that the power cuts to mines would last another four years. Power supply to the mines would be less than their normal needs. Gold for immediate delivery was at 912 USD/oz in London. (17.30 IST) |
Mid-Day Forex Technical Report - Dollar Mixed, Bernanke Awaited Posted: 14 Feb 2008 08:41 AM CST Action Insight Mid-Day Report Dollar Mixed, Bernanke Awaited Dollar remains mixed in early US session after narrower than expected trade deficit in Dec and as traders are cautiously waiting for Bernanke's Testimony before Senate Committee. Trade deficit in US narrowed more than expected by 6.9% from -63.1b -58.8b, better than expectation of -61.0b, thanks to rising exports and falling imports. The goods deficit with China also narrowed 0.6% to 18.8b. Jobless claims dropped 9k from 357k to 348k |
Currency Majors Technical Analysis Posted: 14 Feb 2008 08:37 AM CST American Session EUR/USD - Euro Dollar 1,4587. EUR USD made a false break and continues the actual trend.. EUR USD is in a range between 1,4540 and 1,4630. EUR USD moves without trend and swings around exponential moving averages (EMA 50 and 100). The volatility is high. Oscillators are neutral. The price should continue to move in Bollinger bands. We won't take a position. The risk/reward ratio is too high to take a position.. Resistances 1,4610 - 1,4630 Supports 1,4560 - 1,4540 more |
| Posted: 14 Feb 2008 08:36 AM CST Thursday's London session saw most of the majors finally break from the consolidation levels of the past week. Despite a hot retail sales number out of the last New York session, the short lived dollar rally became an opportunity for most traders to sell on strength. The selling from the late US morning would pick up steam into London with Eastern European names taking the first crack at the greenback and spreading west. With a lack of market moving data during the |
Global equity markets responded favorably as risk appetite grows once more Posted: 14 Feb 2008 08:32 AM CST Yesterday, U.S. retail sales came in stronger than expected and today's important data from the US will be released including the trade balance and initial jobless claims. Global equity markets responded favorably as risk appetite grows once more. Australia posted strong growth in employment numbers and Japanese economic growth data was also higher than anticipated. As a result we have seen more focus on the carry trade which drove the Japanese Yen lower against most currency pairs and pushed |
Third World countries and other emerging nations are of course as vulnerable as any advanced nation from any global recession. However there are as always basic simple strategies that can be followed when especially the American economy quickly slides into recession. The American economy can collapse, but that does not mean the rest of the worlds economy has to follow with them as it happened in 1929.
This area should be treated as a national security issue, as failure to take proper counter measures against a coming global recession can lead to massive social unrest, coups, and in some cases armed struggles within societies which lead to the break-up of that society.
In no particular order some rudimentary suggestions:
- Obviously if the American economy is going to collapse, you should hold as few dollars as possible, and you should diversify your reserve currency into as many currencies as such as the Chinese Yuan, perhaps the Euro, Brazilian Real or the Indian Rupee. In addition one should increase the stock of ones Gold, Silver, and precious stone reserves. So perhaps a mixed bag of reserve holdings. You should also take your money out of the USA, before their banking system collapses, and they are unable to pay your money back from their banks.
- I think the smaller the percentage of your economy engaged in global trade the better it is to with stand the full effects of a global recession. If only 7-15 % of your economy is engaged in international trade than the effects of global recession will be less on your country than that of an economy which is 20--40% active in international trade. Also the smaller the percentage of trade you have with the USA, than the better position you are in avoiding a global recession. Some form of a viable Autarky should be considered, and if ones economy is too small, than the next best thing is a regional autarky---linking ones economy more to the big economies of the region. China, Japan, India, Brazil, Russia etc.
- The global recession is partly/mainly about financial mismanagement in the USA. In the USA financial speculation and financial bogus scams have created this serious matter in the USA and consequently the rest of the world. America for quite a while filled with imperial hubris has been following banana republic economics, which to an extent, China, Japan and South Korea, along with the rest of the world has been paying for. The Americans have been dancing around the world with GWOT---a fake illusion, meant to distract the world, whilst enhancing their power viz the rest of the world. This situation cannot last for ever, and as this banana republic system of financial mismanagement collapses, it of course threatens the rest of the world's economies. One of the key counter measures is to reduce the activities of the speculating market in your economy, and as an extreme measure close the stock exchange down. Great nations have been built in the past without the need for a stock exchange. In addition tighten the activity of the financial sector, and regulate the printing of money, and the setting of interest rates. One should also consider closing all American banks in ones country.
- Many nations after the 1929 Wall street crash recovered quickly. The solution was well planned/central financed stimulus of the economy into asset/capital building projects such as industry and infrastructure. This requires an efficient bureaucracy, and incorruptible government which spends the nations money properly/efficiently. Corrupt governments such as those in Zimbabwe or Iran are obviously not going to succeed, they are doomed. In Iran with massive new oil revenues, the government tried to stimulate the economy through spending, but instead it has resulted in economic disaster----the managers of the economy are corrupt and worthless British backed puppets with their heads in the Koran, selling large parts of the economy to mysterious foreign capitalists, and a country of that size dependent on imported fuel, because they didn't achieve self sufficiency---autarky. So now the Iranian economy is very vulnerable. Obviously such a program to protect the economy and stimulate it relies in the central government being well organized, not corrupt and in control of their countries economy----anticipating in advance the collapse of the American economy and making all necessary contingency plans.
- Many revolutions around the world have been sparked by the lack of food, and that was certainly the case with the 1789 French Revolution, 1917 Russian Revolution and a few others. All governments need to make sure that food stocks, and supplies are well maintained developing good relations with food exporting nations such as Brazil, Argentina, Canada etc. Whilst there may be economic hardship, during the American recession, food supply must be well stocked in all nations. This is not a financial issue, as the cost of food can be covered quite easily by most well organized government through proportional taxation. This is primarily an organizational issue and about planning ahead. Obviously certain Third World countries need to rethink about exporting food in such a scenario of global recession, and concentrate on staple diet agriculture rather than cash crops export.
- Finally in the realm of security and national stability, the emergency services need to be trained for such a scenario. During a global recession, massive numbers of people will be traveling in search of food, and employment, and the situation will become desperate---quite, quite desperate. Depending on how efficient the national government is, much of the worst security implications can be avoided.
Rupee / US Dollar Forex Currency News, Gold in India, and The Sensex index on the Bombay Stock Exchange (BSE). Euro / Rupee and Yen / Rupee.
Labels: currency, economic. forex, gold, india, indian rupee, us dollar
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